Risk Assessment Framework

This risk assessment tool is based on and adapted from Higgins and Steinbuck, 2014. It is intended for everyone (whether new to the topic or highly familiar with the scientific evidence). It will continue to evolve over time and we welcome your feedback and suggestions for improvement.

Risk assessment is challenging for climate change because the societal consequences will depend on many factors that interact in complex ways and whose behavior is likely to remain deeply uncertain. This framework uses five steps to explore the potential consequences of climate change. 

Step 1: Identify the factors that will contribute to the societal consequences of climate change

Step 2: Consider the possible behavior of each contributing factor

Step 3: Consider the range of potential societal consequences 

Step 4: Combine the three contributing factors

Step 5: Translate the contributing factor distirbution (step 4) on to the potential societal consequences (step 3) (coming soon)

Putting it all together (coming soon)